Jong AZ 1-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Jong Ajax at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 1L across 5 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 2W 0D 3L from 5 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.80 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong AZ register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Ajax in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 70%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 50% and Jong Ajax 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 50% | Jong Ajax 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.82 xG and Jong Ajax 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.911 / defence 0.962 | Jong Ajax attack 1.031 / defence 1.542. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.334. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.542 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Jong AZ games / 10 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 49% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Ajax 3.57. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | Jong Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 49% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Jong AZ 1.82 / Jong Ajax 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.911 / def 0.962 | Jong Ajax attack 1.031 / def 1.542 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Jong Ajax xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Jong AZ 1 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax part of?
Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 49% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jong AZ and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and Jong Ajax in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.37
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.15
1.32
Jong Ajax xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
4%
22.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.32 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 10 games, going 6W 0D 4L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (5W 0D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.80 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.30 scored and 2.10 conceded. Jong Ajax's attacking output running into Jong AZ's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 games (1.80 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Jong Ajax away?
Jong AZ's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 2.40 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong Ajax go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2023, when Jong AZ won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong AZ
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Jong Ajax?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong AZ at 60%, Jong Ajax at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Jong AZ and 80% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Jong AZ's games and 80% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Jong AZ's matches and 80% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Jong AZ and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and Jong Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 10, as Jong AZ and Jong Ajax drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.82 xG and Jong Ajax 1.32 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Jong Ajax attack 1.03 / defence 1.54, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 49% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 28%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 50%, Jong Ajax 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.80 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.