Jong AZ vs FC OSS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 40%, yet in-form FC OSS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong AZ vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as Jong AZ welcome FC OSS to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 2D 5L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC OSS's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Jong AZ's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 3 for FC OSS and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 60% and FC OSS 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 69% | FC OSS 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.29 xG and FC OSS 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.773 / defence 0.963 | FC OSS attack 0.686 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Jong AZ games / 42 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 40% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 32%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | FC OSS 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 60% | FC OSS 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 40% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Jong AZ 1.29 / FC OSS 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.773 / def 0.963 | FC OSS attack 0.686 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC OSS xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC OSS part of?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 40% chance of winning, FC OSS a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jong AZ and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Record (10 meetings): Jong AZ 4W | Draws 3 | FC OSS 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. FC OSS (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.77x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.64
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.41
1.12
FC OSS xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.12 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 14W 4D 24L from 42 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 19L across 42 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.10 PPG, FC OSS on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 5W 2D 14L from 21 games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 5W 8D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.36 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 14W 4D 24L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC OSS away?
FC OSS's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.81 PPG; FC OSS away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, FC OSS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 48%, FC OSS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jong AZ) and 38% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 33% of games; FC OSS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 57% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Jong AZ's recent games and 38% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.