Jong AZ 3-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Den Bosch travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 February 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Jong AZ have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.20 PPG, Den Bosch 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong AZ register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 0, Den Bosch 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 48% versus Den Bosch 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 48% | Den Bosch 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.49 xG and Den Bosch 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.123 / defence 1.101 | Den Bosch attack 0.834 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.247. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Jong AZ games / 62 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 67% | Draw 18% | Den Bosch 16%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Den Bosch 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 70% | Den Bosch 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 67% | Draw 18% | Den Bosch 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 63% | xG Jong AZ 2.49 / Den Bosch 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.123 / def 1.101 | Den Bosch attack 0.834 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Den Bosch xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Jong AZ 3 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 67% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jong AZ and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
Record (3 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and Den Bosch in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (1.12) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
67%
1.50
18%
5.70
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.64
1.15
Den Bosch xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
8%
12.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
1%
77.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.15 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 11D 29L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.18 PPG from 62 outings (22W 7D 33L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.24 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 0.77 points per game from 30 outings (6W 5D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.26 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 22W 11D 29L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 22W 7D 33L in their last 62 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.43 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
5
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Den Bosch have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, Den Bosch 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jong AZ) and 57% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 33% of games; Den Bosch in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 50% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jong AZ's recent games and 57% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Den Bosch 3-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.49 xG and Den Bosch 1.15 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against Den Bosch attack 0.83 / defence 1.31, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 67% | Draw 18% | Den Bosch 16%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 48%, Den Bosch 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.24 PPG, Den Bosch 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.