Jong AZ 3-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Jong AZ host Almere City FC at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Almere City FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.60 PPG versus Almere City FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 2, Almere City FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 3–0 with Jong AZ winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 42% versus Almere City FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 45% | Almere City FC 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.85 xG and Almere City FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.036 / defence 0.941 | Almere City FC attack 0.871 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.395. Data: 40 Jong AZ games / 40 Almere City FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Jong AZ 54% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Almere City FC 4.35. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 40% | Almere City FC 60%.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights