Jong Ajax 5-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Monday 22 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Ajax's home record at Sportpark De Toekomst: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Jong Ajax against 0.70 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong Ajax lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 78% and De Graafschap 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 68% | De Graafschap 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.71 xG and De Graafschap 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.156 / defence 0.969 | De Graafschap attack 0.977 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.395. Data: 40 Jong Ajax games / 40 De Graafschap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 47% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 3.33. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 90% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 47% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Jong Ajax 1.71 / De Graafschap 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.156 / def 0.969 | De Graafschap attack 0.977 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.32
De Graafschap xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Jong Ajax 5 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 47% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jong Ajax and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.98x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
47%
2.15
24%
4.22
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.03
1.32
De Graafschap xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.32 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 18W 10D 12L from 40 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 14L across 40 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.35 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 12W 5D 3L from 20 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Jong Ajax are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 10W 3D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 18W 10D 12L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 14W 12D 14L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or De Graafschap away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.05 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Jong Ajax or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 5-1 on 22 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 4, De Graafschap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for Jong Ajax, 50% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Jong Ajax and 65% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Jong Ajax's games and 50% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Jong Ajax's matches and 65% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong Ajax and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 5-1 hammering of De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat De Graafschap 5-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.71 xG and De Graafschap 1.32 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.16 / defence 0.97 against De Graafschap attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 47% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 30%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 68%, De Graafschap 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.60 PPG, De Graafschap 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.60 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.