Heracles 1-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Erve Asito plays host to Heracles versus Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 14 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Heracles's home record at Erve Asito: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Roda (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Heracles. A 0.90 PPG lead over Roda (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Heracles 1W, Roda 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 3–1 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 52% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 59% | Roda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.75 xG and Roda 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.456 / defence 0.970 | Roda attack 0.871 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.328. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.456 — their λ of 2.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Heracles games / 70 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 72% | Draw 16% | Roda 13%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | Roda 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (72%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.75 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 60% | Roda 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 72% | Draw 16% | Roda 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 63% | xG Heracles 2.75 / Roda 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.456 / def 0.970 | Roda attack 0.871 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Heracles (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Roda xG
63%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Roda kick off?
Heracles vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Roda?
Heracles 1 - 0 Roda.
Where is Heracles vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Roda part of?
Heracles vs Roda is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 72% chance of winning, Roda a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Heracles and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 0W.
What form are Heracles and Roda in?
Heracles (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Heracles's attack at 1.46x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.87x) against Heracles's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
72%
1.40
16%
6.44
13%
7.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.87
1.12
Roda xG
1.40
72%
Home win
6.44
16%
Draw
7.72
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
6%
15.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
1%
120.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Heracles and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Heracles and 1.12 for Roda, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Heracles's recent record stands at 30W 11D 27L from 68 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 28W 19D 21L across 68 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Heracles against 1.51 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 19W 8D 7L from 34 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Roda's away record stands at 11W 10D 13L across 34 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.63 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Roda in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 30W 11D 27L in their last 68 games (1.49 PPG), while Roda have gone 28W 19D 21L in their last 68 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Roda away?
Heracles's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.91 PPG; Roda away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Heracles
0
Draws
0
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Roda?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Roda have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2023, when Heracles 1-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Roda?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, Roda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Heracles) and 53% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Roda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Heracles's games and 56% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Heracles's recent games and 53% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and Roda tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heracles edge out Roda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Roda 1-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.75 xG and Roda 1.12 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Heracles fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Roda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.46 / defence 0.97 against Roda attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 72% | Draw 16% | Roda 13%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 59%, Roda 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.49 PPG, Roda 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.