Heracles vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees De Graafschap travel to Asito Stadium to take on Heracles. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Asito Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Heracles) versus 0.90 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Heracles, 1 for De Graafschap and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 3–5 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 55% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 74% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.65 xG and De Graafschap 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.008 / defence 1.156 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 4 Heracles games / 42 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 35% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 43%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 35% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Heracles 1.65 / De Graafschap 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.008 / def 1.156 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.83
De Graafschap xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs De Graafschap kick off?
Heracles vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 4 September 2026 at Asito Stadium.
Where is Heracles vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs De Graafschap part of?
Heracles vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 35% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Heracles and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Heracles and De Graafschap in?
Heracles (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Heracles's attack at 1.01x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.86
22%
4.49
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.48
1.83
De Graafschap xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
16%
6.26
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
6%
17.88
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Heracles and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Heracles and 1.83 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles's recent record stands at 9W 4D 25L from 38 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 12L across 38 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 5W 3D 10L from 18 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 7W 5D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 2.42 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.92 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 76%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 9W 4D 25L in their last 38 games (0.82 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 16W 10D 12L in their last 38 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.00 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and De Graafschap runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Heracles
0
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and De Graafschap?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, De Graafschap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when De Graafschap 5-3 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, De Graafschap 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Heracles and 67% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Heracles's games and 72% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heracles's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do Heracles and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.