Helmond Sport 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Helmond Sport face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Helmond Sport welcome Dordrecht to GS Staalwerken Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 10). Kick-off is Monday 23 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Helmond Sport stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Helmond Sport at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dordrecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Helmond Sport) versus 1.70 (Dordrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Helmond Sport's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Helmond Sport, 1 for Dordrecht and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Mar 2023, ended Helmond Sport 0–0 Dordrecht — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 52% versus Dordrecht 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 54% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.49 xG and Dordrecht 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.942 / defence 0.879 | Dordrecht attack 0.988 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.363. Data: built from Helmond Sport's last 48 games and Dordrecht's last 48.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 44% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 30%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.26 | Draw 3.85 | Dordrecht 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Helmond Sport's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Helmond Sport 70% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 10 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 23 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 44% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Helmond Sport 1.49 / Dordrecht 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.942 / def 0.879 | Dordrecht attack 0.988 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Dordrecht xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 23 October 2023 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Helmond Sport 1 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht part of?
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 10) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 44% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Helmond Sport and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.94) and Dordrecht's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Helmond Sport's last 48 games and Dordrecht's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.85
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.68
1.18
Dordrecht xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.18 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helmond Sport come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 11D 21L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.08 PPG from 48 outings (13W 13D 22L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.23 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Helmond Sport's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.87 points per game from their last 23 away games (5W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.31 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
Helmond Sport (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helmond Sport
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Dordrecht away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.52 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Dordrecht have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Nov 2024, when Dordrecht won Dordrecht 4-0 Helmond Sport.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
6
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Helmond Sport have won 2, Dordrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 56%, Dordrecht 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Helmond Sport) and 52% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helmond Sport and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Helmond Sport's games and 61% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Helmond Sport's recent games and 52% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helmond Sport and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 78% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport and Dordrecht finished level at 1-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.49 xG and Dordrecht 1.18 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Dordrecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 44% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 30%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 54%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.23 PPG, Dordrecht 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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