Helmond Sport 0-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Helmond Sport at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Helmond Sport welcome Den Bosch to GS Staalwerken Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 6 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Helmond Sport at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Den Bosch have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Helmond Sport) versus 1.20 (Den Bosch). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Helmond Sport: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Den Bosch, with 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Feb 2024, ended Helmond Sport 0–0 Den Bosch — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Helmond Sport an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 62% versus Den Bosch 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 60% | Den Bosch 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.50 xG and Den Bosch 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.045 / defence 1.036 | Den Bosch attack 0.987 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.410. Data: built from Helmond Sport's last 55 games and Den Bosch's last 55.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 38% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 36%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.62 | Draw 3.81 | Den Bosch 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helmond Sport are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Helmond Sport 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Helmond Sport's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Helmond Sport 60% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 18 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 38% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Helmond Sport 1.50 / Den Bosch 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 1.045 / def 1.036 | Den Bosch attack 0.987 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Den Bosch xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch FAQs
What time does Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 6 December 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Helmond Sport 0 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch part of?
Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 18) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 38% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Helmond Sport and Den Bosch will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 1.04x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Helmond Sport's last 55 games and Den Bosch's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.81
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.94
1.44
Den Bosch xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
8%
12.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.44 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 23W 12D 20L from 55 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 26L across 55 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.47 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 13W 7D 7L from their last 27 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 9W 4D 14L across their last 27 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.24 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
Helmond Sport (Home) vs Den Bosch (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helmond Sport
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch Form FAQs
What form are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 23W 12D 20L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 16W 13D 26L in their last 55 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Den Bosch away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.70 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Helmond Sport
3
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Helmond Sport have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Den Bosch last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Den Bosch 2-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 70%, Den Bosch 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Helmond Sport) and 52% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helmond Sport and Den Bosch matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Helmond Sport's games and 41% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Helmond Sport's matches and 52% of Den Bosch's.
Do Helmond Sport and Den Bosch matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 67% of Den Bosch's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Helmond Sport's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport and Den Bosch finished level at 0-0 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.50 xG and Den Bosch 1.44 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Helmond Sport fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Den Bosch attack 0.99 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 38% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 36%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 60%, Den Bosch 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.47 PPG, Den Bosch 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eerste Divisie fixtures — matchday 18
All Eerste Divisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →