Helmond Sport 1-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 40%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 1 as Helmond Sport welcome De Graafschap to GS Staalwerken Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 August 2026 at 10:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Helmond Sport haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 2W 5D 3L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. De Graafschap haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Helmond Sport's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Helmond Sport register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour De Graafschap, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for Helmond Sport.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 53% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 53% | De Graafschap 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.985 / defence 0.973 | De Graafschap attack 1.062 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.457. Data: 38 Helmond Sport games / 38 De Graafschap games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 40% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 36%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 60% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 40% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Helmond Sport 1.58 / De Graafschap 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.985 / def 0.973 | De Graafschap attack 1.062 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.50
De Graafschap xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kick off?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kicked off at 10:15 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Helmond Sport 1 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap part of?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 40% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Helmond Sport and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
Record (9 meetings): Helmond Sport 2W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 6W.
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.98x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
40%
2.52
24%
4.18
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.08
1.50
De Graafschap xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
8%
13.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.50 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 10W 9D 19L from 38 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. Helmond Sport haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 11L across 38 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. De Graafschap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helmond Sport heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Helmond Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 6D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.95 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Pre-Season
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 10W 9D 19L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 17W 10D 11L in their last 38 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.53 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, De Graafschap have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Helmond Sport at 68%, De Graafschap at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Helmond Sport and 68% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Helmond Sport's games and 74% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Helmond Sport's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Helmond Sport and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport and De Graafschap finished level at 1-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.50 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against De Graafschap attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 40% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 36%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 53%, De Graafschap 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.