Groningen 2-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and FC Eindhoven meet at Euroborg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Groningen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 2W 3D 5L at Euroborg — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Groningen against 1.30 for FC Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Groningen — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 50% versus FC Eindhoven 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | FC Eindhoven 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.09 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.834 / defence 0.975 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.992 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.384. Data: 14 Groningen games / 52 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 29% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 41%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | FC Eindhoven 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 30% | FC Eindhoven 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 29% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Groningen 1.09 / FC Eindhoven 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.834 / def 0.975 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.992 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Eindhoven xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Groningen vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs FC Eindhoven?
Groningen 2 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Groningen vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Groningen vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 29% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Groningen and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and FC Eindhoven in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.83) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.99x) against Groningen's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
29%
3.47
30%
3.30
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.43
1.34
FC Eindhoven xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
8%
13.22
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Groningen and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Groningen and 1.34 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Groningen come into this having played 48 games, going 8W 10D 30L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.38 PPG from 48 outings (17W 15D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Groningen's home form reads 5W 6D 13L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.31 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 8W 10D 30L in their last 48 games (0.71 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 15D 16L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.88 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Groningen
0
Draws
0
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and FC Eindhoven?
From 2 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when FC Eindhoven 0-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and FC Eindhoven?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 46%, FC Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Groningen) and 46% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Groningen's recent matches and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Groningen's recent games and 46% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.09 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.34 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 29% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 41%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 58%, FC Eindhoven 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.