Groningen 0-3 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Den Bosch travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen in Eerste Divisie (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Groningen stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Groningen's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Den Bosch have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Den Bosch have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Groningen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Groningen's 30% BTTS rate and Den Bosch's 30% (from Groningen's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Den Bosch trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 49% versus Den Bosch 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 56% | Den Bosch 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 2.17 xG and Den Bosch 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.987 / defence 0.830 | Den Bosch attack 0.791 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.295. Den Bosch's defence rating of 1.314 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Groningen's projected output up. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Groningen's last 7 games and Den Bosch's last 45.
Result probabilities: Groningen 68% | Draw 19% | Den Bosch 13%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.48 | Draw 5.26 | Den Bosch 7.43. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (68%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Groningen 30% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 8 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 29 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 68% | Draw 19% | Den Bosch 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Groningen 2.17 / Den Bosch 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.987 / def 0.830 | Den Bosch attack 0.791 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Groningen (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Den Bosch xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Den Bosch FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Den Bosch kick off?
Groningen vs Den Bosch kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 29 September 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Den Bosch?
Groningen 0 - 3 Den Bosch.
Where is Groningen vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Den Bosch part of?
Groningen vs Den Bosch is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 8) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 68% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Groningen and Den Bosch will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Groningen vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.99x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 7 games and Den Bosch's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
68%
1.48
19%
5.26
13%
7.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.02
0.85
Den Bosch xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
7.43
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
2%
64.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Den Bosch Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Groningen and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Groningen and 0.85 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 8W 7D 26L from 41 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 25L across 41 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 0.76 PPG, Den Bosch on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 5W 3D 12L from their last 20 home games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 2W 2D 16L across their last 20 away games, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.24 scored and 2.22 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
Groningen (Home) vs Den Bosch (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Groningen vs Den Bosch Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 8W 7D 26L in their last 41 games (0.76 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 11W 5D 25L in their last 41 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Den Bosch away?
Groningen's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.90 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Den Bosch H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Den Bosch?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 1, Den Bosch have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Den Bosch last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2024: Den Bosch 1-4 Groningen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 45%, Den Bosch 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Groningen and 70% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 40% of games; Den Bosch in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Den Bosch Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Den Bosch matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Groningen's recent matches and 50% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and Den Bosch matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Groningen's matches and 70% of Den Bosch's.
Do Groningen and Den Bosch matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Groningen's recent matches and 75% of Den Bosch's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Groningen 0-3 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 2.17 xG and Den Bosch 0.85 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Groningen fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Den Bosch outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against Den Bosch attack 0.79 / defence 1.31, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 68% | Draw 19% | Den Bosch 13%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 56%, Den Bosch 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Den Bosch's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 0.76 PPG, Den Bosch 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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