FC Volendam 1-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Final as FC Volendam welcome Willem II to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Willem II's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.40 PPG (FC Volendam) versus 2.50 (Willem II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 0 for Willem II and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2026, ended 2–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Willem II in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 64% versus Willem II 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 77% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.36 xG and Willem II 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.026 / defence 0.998 | Willem II attack 1.175 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. Data: 38 FC Volendam games / 38 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 31% | Draw 24% | Willem II 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Willem II 2.22. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Willem II 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Final | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 31% | Draw 24% | Willem II 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Volendam 1.36 / Willem II 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.026 / def 0.998 | Willem II attack 1.175 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Willem II (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Willem II xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Willem II kick off?
FC Volendam vs Willem II kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Willem II?
FC Volendam 1 - 2 Willem II.
Where is FC Volendam vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Willem II part of?
FC Volendam vs Willem II is a Final fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 31% chance of winning, Willem II a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Volendam and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Willem II in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.03) and Willem II's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
31%
3.19
24%
4.19
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.03
1.67
Willem II xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
6%
16.91
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.67 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 27W 4D 8L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II's form line: 21W 9D 9L from 39 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 2.18 PPG, Willem II on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 2.37 PPG from 19 outings (15W 0D 4L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 11W 4D 4L from 19 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.56 scored and 0.97 conceded. FC Volendam's scoring rate against Willem II's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Willem II in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Willem II in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 27W 4D 8L in their last 39 games (2.18 PPG), while Willem II have gone 21W 9D 9L in their last 39 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Willem II away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.37 PPG; Willem II away: 1.95 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Willem II in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
0
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Willem II?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Willem II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Willem II.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 53%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for FC Volendam and 63% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Willem II in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Volendam's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of FC Volendam's matches and 63% of Willem II's.
Do FC Volendam and Willem II tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Willem II in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out FC Volendam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Final, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.36 xG and Willem II 1.67 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Willem II attack 1.18 / defence 0.81, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 31% | Draw 24% | Willem II 45%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 77%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 2.18 PPG, Willem II 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.