FC Volendam 2-4 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
VVV Venlo's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VVV Venlo away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 63% versus VVV Venlo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 68% | VVV Venlo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.06 xG and VVV Venlo 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.086 / defence 0.846 | VVV Venlo attack 0.655 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.408. VVV Venlo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 FC Volendam games / 45 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 66% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 12%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | VVV Venlo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 40% | VVV Venlo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 66% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Volendam 2.06 / VVV Venlo 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.086 / def 0.846 | VVV Venlo attack 0.655 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
0.78
VVV Venlo xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo kick off?
FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
FC Volendam 2 - 4 VVV Venlo.
Where is FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo part of?
FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 66% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Volendam and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and VVV Venlo?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and VVV Venlo in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.66x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.46
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.84
0.78
VVV Venlo xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
13%
7.82
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
2%
66.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for FC Volendam and 0.78 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 7W 8D 26L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo's form line: 12W 10D 19L from 41 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, VVV Venlo are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 0.85 PPG from 20 outings (5W 2D 13L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 2W 6D 12L from 20 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VVV Venlo's season.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.20 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 7W 8D 26L in their last 41 games (0.71 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or VVV Venlo away?
FC Volendam's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 0.85 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and VVV Venlo?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when VVV Venlo 1-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and VVV Venlo?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 45%, VVV Venlo 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Volendam and 55% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 40% of games; VVV Venlo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 45% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 55% of VVV Venlo's.
Do FC Volendam and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat FC Volendam 2-4 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.06 xG and VVV Venlo 0.78 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. VVV Venlo outscored their 0.78 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.09 / defence 0.85 against VVV Venlo attack 0.66 / defence 1.29, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 66% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 12%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a VVV Venlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VVV Venlo arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.