FC Volendam vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Roda meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 5W 1D 4L at Kras Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Roda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC Volendam 1W, Roda 0W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 3–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Roda — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 60% versus Roda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 60% | Roda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.82 xG and Roda 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.371 / defence 0.822 | Roda attack 0.629 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Roda's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 FC Volendam games / 48 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 63% | Draw 22% | Roda 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Roda 6.67. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | Roda 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 63% | Draw 22% | Roda 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Volendam 1.82 / Roda 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.371 / def 0.822 | Roda attack 0.629 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Roda xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Roda kick off?
FC Volendam vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Roda part of?
FC Volendam vs Roda is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 63% chance of winning, Roda a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Volendam and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Roda?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 3 | Roda 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Roda in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.63x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 11/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.49
15%
6.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.58
0.76
Roda xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
6.68
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
30%
3.39
2%
41.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC Volendam and 0.76 for Roda, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam come into this having played 47 games, going 14W 9D 24L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.43 PPG from 47 outings (16W 19D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.43 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Volendam's home form reads 11W 5D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.70 points per game from 23 outings (10W 9D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.40 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Roda in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Roda have gone 16W 19D 12L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.65 PPG; Roda away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
3
Draws
0
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Roda?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Roda have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when FC Volendam 3-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Roda?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for FC Volendam, 61% for Roda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (FC Volendam) and 52% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 61% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 52% of Roda's.
Do FC Volendam and Roda tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Roda in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.