FC Volendam vs NAC Breda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees NAC Breda travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 1.30 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, NAC Breda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 2, NAC Breda 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 58% versus NAC Breda 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 63% | NAC Breda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.74 xG and NAC Breda 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.450 / defence 0.902 | NAC Breda attack 0.970 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — their λ of 2.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 FC Volendam games / 4 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 64% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.56 | Draw 5.88 | NAC Breda 5.26. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.74 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 64% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 64% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 72% | xG FC Volendam 2.74 / NAC Breda 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.450 / def 0.902 | NAC Breda attack 0.970 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.74
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.49
NAC Breda xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs NAC Breda kick off?
FC Volendam vs NAC Breda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda part of?
FC Volendam vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 64% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 19% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both FC Volendam and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and NAC Breda in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.74. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.4%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
64%
1.56
17%
5.88
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
2 – 2
6.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.74
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
4.23
1.49
NAC Breda xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.88
17%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
6%
15.50
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
1%
81.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.74 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.49 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 11W 6D 21L from 38 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 18L across 38 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.03 PPG, NAC Breda on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 2W 7D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.11 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 11W 6D 21L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or NAC Breda away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.47 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when NAC Breda 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 74%, NAC Breda 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Volendam and 63% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of FC Volendam's games and 53% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Volendam's matches and 63% of NAC Breda's.
Do FC Volendam and NAC Breda tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.