FC Volendam 4-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as FC Volendam take on FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host FC OSS at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC OSS — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 1, FC OSS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with FC OSS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC OSS trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 65% versus FC OSS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 68% | FC OSS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 0.93 xG and FC OSS 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.687 / defence 1.066 | FC OSS attack 0.801 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.313. FC Volendam's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 FC Volendam games / 41 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 26% | Draw 38% | FC OSS 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | FC OSS 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | FC OSS 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 26% | Draw 38% | FC OSS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG FC Volendam 0.93 / FC OSS 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.687 / def 1.066 | FC OSS attack 0.801 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC OSS xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs FC OSS kick off?
FC Volendam vs FC OSS kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs FC OSS?
FC Volendam 4 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is FC Volendam vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs FC OSS part of?
FC Volendam vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 26% chance of winning, FC OSS a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC Volendam and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and FC OSS?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and FC OSS in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.69x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.85
38%
2.62
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.05
1.12
FC OSS xG
3.85
26%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
8%
11.83
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.4 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.12 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 37 games, going 4W 7D 26L for 0.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.03 PPG from 37 outings (11W 5D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 3W 2D 13L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.61 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (3W 3D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.86 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and FC OSS in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 4W 7D 26L in their last 37 games (0.51 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 5D 21L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or FC OSS away?
FC OSS's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 0.61 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
0
Draws
1
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and FC OSS?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, FC OSS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when FC OSS 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and FC OSS?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 50%, FC OSS 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Volendam) and 50% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 44% of games; FC OSS in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 39% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 50% of FC OSS's.
Do FC Volendam and FC OSS tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat FC OSS 4-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 0.93 xG and FC OSS 1.12 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.69 / defence 1.07 against FC OSS attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 26% | Draw 38% | FC OSS 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, FC OSS 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC OSS arrived the stronger side — 1.03 PPG against 0.51. Form was overturned, with FC Volendam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.