FC Volendam 6-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 4 as FC Volendam welcome Dordrecht to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (FC Volendam) versus 0.90 (Dordrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 2 for Dordrecht and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 1–4 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dordrecht trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 59% and Dordrecht 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 62% | Dordrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.88 xG and Dordrecht 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.070 / defence 0.960 | Dordrecht attack 0.961 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.671. Data: 3 FC Volendam games / 41 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 46% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Dordrecht 3.12. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Dordrecht 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 46% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Volendam 1.88 / Dordrecht 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.070 / def 0.960 | Dordrecht attack 0.961 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.671 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Dordrecht xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC Volendam vs Dordrecht kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
FC Volendam 6 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is FC Volendam vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Dordrecht part of?
FC Volendam vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 46% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Volendam and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Dordrecht?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and Dordrecht in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.07x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
46%
2.18
22%
4.50
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.42
1.54
Dordrecht xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
5%
20.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.54 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 10W 8D 21L from 39 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 16L across 39 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 0.97 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 7W 5D 7L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 5W 7D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.28 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 67%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 10W 8D 21L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Dordrecht away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.37 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Dordrecht runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2026, when FC Volendam won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
0
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Dordrecht?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Dordrecht have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when FC Volendam 6-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Dordrecht?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 74%, Dordrecht at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Volendam and 68% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of FC Volendam's games and 74% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Volendam's matches and 68% of Dordrecht's.
Do FC Volendam and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Dordrecht 6-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.88 xG and Dordrecht 1.54 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Dordrecht attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 46% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 32%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 62%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 0.97 PPG, Dordrecht 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.