FC OSS 1-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Telstar at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Frans Heesen Stadion plays host to FC OSS versus Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC OSS have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 2W 2D 4L from 8 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Telstar's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Telstar arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 50% versus Telstar 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 69% | Telstar 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.40 xG and Telstar 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.902 / defence 1.334 | Telstar attack 0.693 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.548. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 FC OSS games / 16 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 25% | Telstar 38%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Telstar 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 62% | Telstar 38%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 25% | Telstar 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG FC OSS 1.40 / Telstar 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.902 / def 1.334 | Telstar attack 0.693 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Telstar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Telstar xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Telstar kick off?
FC OSS vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Telstar?
FC OSS 1 - 1 Telstar.
Where is FC OSS vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Telstar part of?
FC OSS vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 37% chance of winning, Telstar a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC OSS and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Telstar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and Telstar in?
FC OSS (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Telstar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.90x the league average against Telstar's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.69x) against FC OSS's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
37%
2.72
25%
3.98
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.83
1.43
Telstar xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.43 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 3W 3D 10L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 4W 5D 7L from 16 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for FC OSS against 1.06 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.19 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Telstar in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Telstar have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Telstar away?
Telstar's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.00 PPG; Telstar away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC OSS
3
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Telstar have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Telstar 3-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 62%, Telstar 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for FC OSS and 62% for Telstar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC OSS's recent matches and 38% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of FC OSS's matches and 62% of Telstar's.
Do FC OSS and Telstar tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Telstar in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS and Telstar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as FC OSS and Telstar drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.40 xG and Telstar 1.43 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.90 / defence 1.33 against Telstar attack 0.69 / defence 1.27, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 37% | Draw 25% | Telstar 38%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 69%, Telstar 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.75 PPG, Telstar 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.