FC OSS 0-5 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and PEC Zwolle meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Frans Heesen Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
PEC Zwolle arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 62% versus PEC Zwolle 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 66% | PEC Zwolle 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.42 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.897 / defence 0.932 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.183 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.333. Data: 51 FC OSS games / 13 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 36% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 39%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: FC OSS 50% | PEC Zwolle 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 36% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG FC OSS 1.42 / PEC Zwolle 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.897 / def 0.932 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.183 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.47
PEC Zwolle xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle?
FC OSS 0 - 5 PEC Zwolle.
Where is FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle part of?
FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 36% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC OSS and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and PEC Zwolle in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.18x) against FC OSS's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
36%
2.74
25%
4.03
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.89
1.47
PEC Zwolle xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC OSS and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.47 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 9D 26L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 15W 8D 24L from 47 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for FC OSS against 1.13 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (6W 6D 11L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 9W 1D 13L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.15 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 9D 26L in their last 47 games (0.96 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 15W 8D 24L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.04 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC OSS
0
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when PEC Zwolle 4-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 65%, PEC Zwolle 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC OSS) and 48% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of FC OSS's recent matches and 30% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of FC OSS's recent games and 48% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC OSS and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 0-5 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat FC OSS 0-5 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.42 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.4 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.47 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.18 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 36% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 39%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 66%, PEC Zwolle 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.96 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.