FC OSS 1-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Jong AZ at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, FC OSS have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC OSS, 1 for Jong AZ and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Jong AZ winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 59% versus Jong AZ 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 59% | Jong AZ 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.31 xG and Jong AZ 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.892 / defence 1.235 | Jong AZ attack 0.616 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.445. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 FC OSS games / 22 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 41% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 31%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Jong AZ 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 70% | Jong AZ 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 24 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 41% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG FC OSS 1.31 / Jong AZ 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.892 / def 1.235 | Jong AZ attack 0.616 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Jong AZ xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 24 January 2022 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
FC OSS 1 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is FC OSS vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Jong AZ part of?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 41% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC OSS and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.64
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.41
1.10
Jong AZ xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.10 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 6D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 0.95 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC OSS's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (2W 1D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.95 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 7W 4D 11L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Jong AZ away?
FC OSS's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.00 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 70%, Jong AZ 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (FC OSS) and 40% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC OSS's games and 40% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC OSS's matches and 40% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC OSS and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC OSS edge out Jong AZ 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Jong AZ 1-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.31 xG and Jong AZ 1.10 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.89 / defence 1.24 against Jong AZ attack 0.62 / defence 1.26, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 41% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 31%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 59%, Jong AZ 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.95 PPG, Jong AZ 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.