FC OSS 3-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 40%, yet in-form Den Bosch provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC OSS vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and Den Bosch meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 2W 1D 7L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Den Bosch arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC OSS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Den Bosch in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC OSS, 2 for Den Bosch and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–4 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 58% versus Den Bosch 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 65% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.57 xG and Den Bosch 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.789 / defence 1.242 | Den Bosch attack 0.910 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.312. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 FC OSS games / 60 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 40% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 36%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Den Bosch 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC OSS are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Den Bosch (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 60% | Den Bosch 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 40% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG FC OSS 1.57 / Den Bosch 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.789 / def 1.242 | Den Bosch attack 0.910 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Den Bosch xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Den Bosch kick off?
FC OSS vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
FC OSS 3 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is FC OSS vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Den Bosch part of?
FC OSS vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 40% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC OSS and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
Record (3 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are FC OSS and Den Bosch in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.91x) against FC OSS's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.16
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.05
1.48
Den Bosch xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.48 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC OSS's recent record stands at 16W 11D 33L from 60 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 21W 7D 32L across 60 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for FC OSS against 1.17 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 8W 6D 15L from 29 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 5D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.23 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 16W 11D 33L in their last 60 games (0.98 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 21W 7D 32L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Den Bosch away?
FC OSS's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.03 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 4-1 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
0
Draws
6
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 4, Den Bosch have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when FC OSS 4-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 62%, Den Bosch 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for FC OSS and 55% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC OSS's games and 52% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of FC OSS's matches and 55% of Den Bosch's.
Do FC OSS and Den Bosch tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC OSS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Den Bosch 3-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.57 xG and Den Bosch 1.48 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.79 / defence 1.24 against Den Bosch attack 0.91 / defence 1.26, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 40% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 36%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 65%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.98 PPG, Den Bosch 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.