FC Eindhoven 2-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Willem II at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 6W 1D 3L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, FC Eindhoven have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Willem II in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 60% versus Willem II 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 57% | Willem II 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.04 xG and Willem II 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.062 / defence 0.947 | Willem II attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.287. Data: 39 FC Eindhoven games / 1 Willem II games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 60% | Draw 21% | Willem II 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Willem II 5.26. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 70% | Willem II 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 60% | Draw 21% | Willem II 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.04 / Willem II 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.062 / def 0.947 | Willem II attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Willem II xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Willem II kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
FC Eindhoven 2 - 1 Willem II.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Willem II part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 60% chance of winning, Willem II a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Willem II in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
60%
1.65
21%
4.77
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.07
1.04
Willem II xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
13%
7.65
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
2%
41.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.04 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 19W 8D 8L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II's form line: 9W 7D 19L from 35 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Willem II.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.94 PPG from 17 outings (10W 3D 4L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 2W 3D 12L from 17 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 0.94 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Willem II in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 19W 8D 8L in their last 35 games (1.86 PPG), while Willem II have gone 9W 7D 19L in their last 35 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Willem II away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.94 PPG; Willem II away: 0.53 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Willem II in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Eindhoven 0-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 71%, Willem II 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (FC Eindhoven) and 53% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Eindhoven's games and 47% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 53% of Willem II's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Willem II tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Willem II in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Willem II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Willem II 2-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.04 xG and Willem II 1.04 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Willem II attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 60% | Draw 21% | Willem II 19%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 57%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.