FC Eindhoven 1-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Telstar travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's home record at Jan Louwers Stadion: 6W 1D 1L from 8 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.38 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.38 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Telstar — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Telstar in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 44% versus Telstar 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 50% | Telstar 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.79 xG and Telstar 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.188 / defence 1.018 | Telstar attack 0.655 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.549. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 FC Eindhoven games / 18 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 55% | Draw 23% | Telstar 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Telstar 4.55. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 62% | Telstar 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 55% | Draw 23% | Telstar 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.79 / Telstar 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.188 / def 1.018 | Telstar attack 0.655 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Telstar xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Telstar kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Telstar?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 1 Telstar.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Telstar part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 55% chance of winning, Telstar a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Telstar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Telstar in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Telstar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (1.19) and Telstar's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.32
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.82
1.03
Telstar xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
4%
27.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.03 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 9W 2D 7L from 18 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 8L across 18 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Eindhoven by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Telstar heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 6W 1D 1L from 8 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Telstar's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.17 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Telstar in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 9W 2D 7L in their last 18 games (1.61 PPG), while Telstar have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Telstar away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.38 PPG; Telstar away: 1.38 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Telstar in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and Telstar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Telstar won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 5, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when FC Eindhoven 0-4 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Telstar?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 62%, Telstar 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Eindhoven) and 50% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Telstar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 38% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 50% of Telstar's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Telstar tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Telstar in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and Telstar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven and Telstar finished level at 1-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.79 xG and Telstar 1.03 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.19 / defence 1.02 against Telstar attack 0.66 / defence 1.26, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 55% | Draw 23% | Telstar 22%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 50%, Telstar 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.