FC Eindhoven 2-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees NAC Breda travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 August 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (FC Eindhoven) versus 1.60 (NAC Breda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Eindhoven, 1 for NAC Breda and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FC Eindhoven trading profile (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
NAC Breda trading profile (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 56% and NAC Breda 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 51% | NAC Breda 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.68 xG and NAC Breda 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.964 / defence 0.972 | NAC Breda attack 1.127 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.262. Data: 39 FC Eindhoven games / 40 NAC Breda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 3.12. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 50% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.68 / NAC Breda 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.964 / def 0.972 | NAC Breda attack 1.127 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.38
NAC Breda xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 August 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
FC Eindhoven 2 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda part of?
FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 45% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
Record (4 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.96) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
45%
2.25
24%
4.21
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.06
1.38
NAC Breda xG
2.25
45%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.38 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 41 games, going 17W 11D 13L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.54 PPG from 41 outings (19W 6D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.51 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (9W 3D 9L).
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.73 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 73%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 11D 13L in their last 41 games (1.51 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 19W 6D 16L in their last 41 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or NAC Breda away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.81 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, NAC Breda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 52%, NAC Breda 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for FC Eindhoven and 81% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC Eindhoven's games and 76% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 81% of NAC Breda's.
Do FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat NAC Breda 2-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.68 xG and NAC Breda 1.38 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against NAC Breda attack 1.13 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 32%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 51%, NAC Breda 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.51 PPG, NAC Breda 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.