FC Eindhoven 1-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to Jan Louwers Stadion to face FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Eindhoven (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 1L across 7 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC Eindhoven. A 1.00 PPG lead over Jong AZ (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 50% versus Jong AZ 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 56% | Jong AZ 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.81 xG and Jong AZ 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.262 / defence 1.116 | Jong AZ attack 0.634 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.548. FC Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 FC Eindhoven games / 16 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 54% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Jong AZ 4.35. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 71% | Jong AZ 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 54% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.81 / Jong AZ 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.262 / def 1.116 | Jong AZ attack 0.634 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Jong AZ xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 54% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (1.26) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.63x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.35
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.91
1.09
Jong AZ xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
4%
26.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.09 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 8W 2D 6L from 16 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 7L across 16 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.31 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.88 scored and 1.00 conceded. FC Eindhoven's scoring rate against Jong AZ's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Last 16 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 8W 2D 6L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong AZ away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.29 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Eindhoven have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 6, Jong AZ have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when FC Eindhoven 3-2 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 71%, Jong AZ 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (FC Eindhoven) and 43% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Eindhoven's games and 43% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 43% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Jong AZ 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong AZ 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.81 xG and Jong AZ 1.09 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Eindhoven fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.26 / defence 1.12 against Jong AZ attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 54% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 23%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 56%, Jong AZ 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong AZ's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.62 PPG, Jong AZ 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.