FC Eindhoven 3-2 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to Jan Louwers Stadion to face FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 19 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Eindhoven (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.20 for Jong AZ. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours FC Eindhoven, who have won 4 of the last 8 meetings against Jong AZ — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with FC Eindhoven winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Eindhoven and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 43% versus Jong AZ 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 60% | Jong AZ 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.82 xG and Jong AZ 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.981 / defence 1.156 | Jong AZ attack 1.208 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.512. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 2.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 FC Eindhoven games / 58 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.94 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 2.22. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.93 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 40% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.82 / Jong AZ 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.981 / def 1.156 | Jong AZ attack 1.208 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.512 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Jong AZ xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 December 2025 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
FC Eindhoven 3 - 2 Jong AZ.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 34% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 45% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
Record (8 meetings): FC Eindhoven 4W | Draws 3 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.98) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.21x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 2.11.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
34%
2.95
21%
4.81
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.93
2.11
Jong AZ xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.79
Clean Sheet
12%
8.26
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
4%
24.36
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 2.11 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 21W 12D 25L from 58 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 26L across 58 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.24 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 8W 7D 14L from 29 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 12W 6D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.71 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 21W 12D 25L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 20W 12D 26L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.07 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.45 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Eindhoven have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 6, Jong AZ have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Jong AZ 0-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 45%, Jong AZ 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for FC Eindhoven and 66% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of FC Eindhoven's games and 66% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 66% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong AZ 3-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.82 xG and Jong AZ 2.11 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against Jong AZ attack 1.21 / defence 1.07, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 45%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 60%, Jong AZ 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.29 PPG, Jong AZ 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.