FC Eindhoven 2-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Jong Ajax at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Jong Ajax 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Eindhoven trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Jong Ajax trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 46% versus Jong Ajax 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 61% | Jong Ajax 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.04 xG and Jong Ajax 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.173 / defence 1.080 | Jong Ajax attack 0.749 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.455. Data: 67 FC Eindhoven games / 67 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 57% | Draw 22% | Jong Ajax 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Jong Ajax 4.76. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 50% | Jong Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 57% | Draw 22% | Jong Ajax 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.04 / Jong Ajax 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.173 / def 1.080 | Jong Ajax attack 0.749 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Jong Ajax xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
FC Eindhoven 2 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 57% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax?
Record (9 meetings): FC Eindhoven 3W | Draws 4 | Jong Ajax 2W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.49
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.22
1.18
Jong Ajax xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
13%
7.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.71
3%
36.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.18 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 13D 30L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 0.93 PPG from 67 outings (15W 17D 35L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.27 PPG, Jong Ajax on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 11W 7D 15L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.64 points per game from 33 outings (5W 6D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.15 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
Jong Ajax
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 24W 13D 30L in their last 67 games (1.27 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 15W 17D 35L in their last 67 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong Ajax away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.21 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Eindhoven go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Eindhoven
4
Draws
2
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 46%, Jong Ajax 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Eindhoven and 64% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 30% of games; Jong Ajax in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Jong Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 54% of Jong Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 64% of Jong Ajax's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Jong Ajax 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong Ajax 2-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.04 xG and Jong Ajax 1.18 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.17 / defence 1.08 against Jong Ajax attack 0.75 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 57% | Draw 22% | Jong Ajax 21%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 61%, Jong Ajax 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.27 PPG, Jong Ajax 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.