FC Eindhoven 0-4 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees De Graafschap travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 February 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG, De Graafschap 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Eindhoven, 0 for De Graafschap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 2–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 54% versus De Graafschap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 54% | De Graafschap 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.80 xG and De Graafschap 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.018 / defence 0.886 | De Graafschap attack 1.054 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.213. Data: 63 FC Eindhoven games / 63 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 53% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 4.17. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 50% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 53% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.80 / De Graafschap 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.018 / def 0.886 | De Graafschap attack 1.054 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.13
De Graafschap xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 4 De Graafschap.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 53% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): FC Eindhoven 2W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (1.02) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.32
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.93
1.13
De Graafschap xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
4%
25.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.13 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 32W 14D 19L from 65 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 24L across 65 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.69 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 20W 6D 6L from 32 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 13W 7D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.38 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 32W 14D 19L in their last 65 games (1.69 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 23W 18D 24L in their last 65 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or De Graafschap away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.06 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.44 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 59%, De Graafschap 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for FC Eindhoven and 66% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; De Graafschap in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Eindhoven's games and 59% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 66% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC Eindhoven 0-4 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.80 xG and De Graafschap 1.13 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.8 short of their projected output. De Graafschap outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against De Graafschap attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 53% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 24%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a De Graafschap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 54%, De Graafschap 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.69 PPG, De Graafschap 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.