FC Eindhoven 0-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Almere City FC at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Eindhoven at 1.60 PPG versus Almere City FC's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Eindhoven have won 1, Almere City FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Eindhoven trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Almere City FC trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 56% versus Almere City FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 56% | Almere City FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.50 xG and Almere City FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.126 / defence 0.869 | Almere City FC attack 0.950 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.265. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 FC Eindhoven games / 61 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 48% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Almere City FC 3.85. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 50% | Almere City FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 48% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.50 / Almere City FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.126 / def 0.869 | Almere City FC attack 0.950 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Almere City FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 48% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.87
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.55
1.04
Almere City FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
17.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.04 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 61 games, going 31W 14D 16L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.31 PPG from 61 outings (23W 11D 27L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 19W 6D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (11W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.51 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 31W 14D 16L in their last 61 games (1.75 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 23W 11D 27L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Almere City FC away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.10 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Almere City FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Eindhoven 3-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 63%, Almere City FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for FC Eindhoven and 63% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC Eindhoven's games and 60% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 63% of Almere City FC's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Almere City FC tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat FC Eindhoven 0-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.50 xG and Almere City FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Eindhoven fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against Almere City FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.80, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 48% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 26%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 56%, Almere City FC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.