Excelsior 3-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees De Graafschap travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Excelsior 1.60 PPG, De Graafschap 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Excelsior have won 0, De Graafschap 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 69% and De Graafschap 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 82% | De Graafschap 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.52 xG and De Graafschap 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.997 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.415. Data: 1 Excelsior games / 39 De Graafschap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 34% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 38%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | De Graafschap 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 50% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 34% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Excelsior 1.52 / De Graafschap 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.997 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.62
De Graafschap xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs De Graafschap kick off?
Excelsior vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs De Graafschap?
Excelsior 3 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Excelsior vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs De Graafschap part of?
Excelsior vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 34% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Excelsior and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Excelsior and De Graafschap in?
Excelsior (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.64
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.14
1.62
De Graafschap xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.86
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Excelsior and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.62 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior's recent record stands at 9W 11D 19L from 39 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 14L across 39 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 6W 7D 6L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 7W 3D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.72 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 9W 11D 19L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 6D 14L in their last 39 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or De Graafschap away?
Excelsior's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.32 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Excelsior's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and De Graafschap?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, De Graafschap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 63%, De Graafschap 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Excelsior and 68% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Excelsior's games and 63% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Excelsior's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Excelsior and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat De Graafschap 3-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.52 xG and De Graafschap 1.62 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against De Graafschap attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 34% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 38%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 82%, De Graafschap 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Excelsior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.