Emmen 3-3 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vitesse at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vitesse make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 16 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 3W 2D 5L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vitesse's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Emmen against 1.50 for Vitesse. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Emmen lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Vitesse — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 54% versus Vitesse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 62% | Vitesse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 0.88 xG and Vitesse 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.833 / defence 1.096 | Vitesse attack 0.825 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.340. Vitesse's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Emmen games / 5 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 24% | Draw 35% | Vitesse 41%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Vitesse 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vitesse as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 60% | Vitesse 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Monday 16 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 24% | Draw 35% | Vitesse 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Emmen 0.88 / Vitesse 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.833 / def 1.096 | Vitesse attack 0.825 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Vitesse xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Vitesse kick off?
Emmen vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 September 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Vitesse?
Emmen 3 - 3 Vitesse.
Where is Emmen vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Vitesse part of?
Emmen vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 24% chance of winning, Vitesse a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Emmen and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Vitesse?
Record (2 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Emmen and Vitesse in?
Emmen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Vitesse (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.83x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.82x) against Emmen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
24%
4.18
35%
2.86
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.09
1.21
Vitesse xG
4.18
24%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 15.0 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Emmen and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Emmen and 1.21 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 16W 6D 17L from 39 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 23L across 39 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 8W 3D 8L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 6W 0D 13L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 0.92 scored and 2.03 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 16W 6D 17L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 8W 8D 23L in their last 39 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Vitesse away?
Emmen's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.42 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Emmen
3
Draws
3
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 0, Vitesse have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Vitesse 3-3 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 47%, Vitesse 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Emmen and 63% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 26% of games; Vitesse in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Emmen's recent matches and 42% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Emmen's matches and 63% of Vitesse's.
Do Emmen and Vitesse tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen and Vitesse share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen and Vitesse finished level at 3-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 0.88 xG and Vitesse 1.21 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Vitesse attack 0.82 / defence 0.71, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 24% | Draw 35% | Vitesse 41%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 62%, Vitesse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.