Emmen 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 5W 2D 3L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Emmen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Emmen, 4 for Roda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Roda — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 51% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 60% | Roda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.37 xG and Roda 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.246 / defence 1.089 | Roda attack 0.977 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.730 / away 1.487. Data: 54 Emmen games / 53 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 55% | Draw 19% | Roda 25%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | Roda 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 70% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 55% | Draw 19% | Roda 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 72% | xG Emmen 2.37 / Roda 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.246 / def 1.089 | Roda attack 0.977 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.730 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Emmen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Roda xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Roda kick off?
Emmen vs Roda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Roda?
Emmen 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is Emmen vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Roda part of?
Emmen vs Roda is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 55% chance of winning, Roda a 25% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Emmen and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 0 | Roda 4W.
What form are Emmen and Roda in?
Emmen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Roda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.25) and Roda's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.98x) against Emmen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
55%
1.81
19%
5.14
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.95
1.58
Roda xG
1.81
55%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
9%
10.72
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
2%
42.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Emmen and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Emmen and 1.58 for Roda, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 53 games, going 23W 8D 22L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.42 PPG from 53 outings (20W 15D 18L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Emmen against 1.42 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Emmen's home form reads 10W 6D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.42 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Roda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 23W 8D 22L in their last 53 games (1.45 PPG), while Roda have gone 20W 15D 18L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Roda away?
Emmen's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.44 PPG; Roda away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Emmen or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Roda in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Emmen
2
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Roda?
From 9 meetings on record, Emmen have won 3, Roda have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 60%, Roda 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Emmen and 68% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Emmen's games and 68% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Emmen's matches and 68% of Roda's.
Do Emmen and Roda tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Roda in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen and Roda finished level at 1-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.37 xG and Roda 1.58 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Roda attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 55% | Draw 19% | Roda 25%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Roda 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.45 PPG, Roda 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.