Emmen 0-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Emmen face Roda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Emmen (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Emmen have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Roda have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Roda have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Emmen edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2022, ended Emmen 2–0 Roda — a Emmen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Roda — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 55% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 55% | Roda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.16 xG and Roda 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.913 / defence 1.003 | Roda attack 0.816 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.369. Data: built from Emmen's last 18 games and Roda's last 56.
Result probabilities: Emmen 35% | Draw 32% | Roda 33%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.86 | Draw 3.14 | Roda 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Emmen 50% (last 10 home games) | Roda 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 19 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 35% | Draw 32% | Roda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Emmen 1.16 / Roda 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.913 / def 1.003 | Roda attack 0.816 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Emmen (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Roda xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs Roda FAQs
What time does Emmen vs Roda kick off?
Emmen vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 15 December 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Roda?
Emmen 0 - 1 Roda.
Where is Emmen vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Roda part of?
Emmen vs Roda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 19) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 35% chance of winning, Roda a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Emmen and Roda will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Emmen vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.91) and Roda's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.82x) against Emmen's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 18 games and Roda's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.14
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.28
1.12
Roda xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs Roda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Emmen and 1.12 for Roda, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 15D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.39 PPG from 56 outings (22W 12D 22L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Emmen against 1.39 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Emmen's home form reads 9W 10D 8L across their last 27 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 27 away games (7W 7D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.41 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Roda
Blended
Emmen (Home) vs Roda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Emmen vs Roda Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and Roda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 17W 15D 24L in their last 56 games (1.18 PPG), while Roda have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Roda away?
Emmen's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.37 PPG; Roda away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Emmen
2
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs Roda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Roda?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 3, Roda have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Roda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 August 2026: Emmen 1-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 44%, Roda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Emmen) and 44% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 30% of games; Roda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs Roda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and Roda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Emmen's recent matches and 52% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Emmen and Roda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Emmen's recent games and 44% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Roda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Emmen's recent matches and 74% of Roda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Emmen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Emmen 0-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.16 xG and Roda 1.12 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Emmen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Roda attack 0.82 / defence 0.80, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 35% | Draw 32% | Roda 33%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 55%, Roda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Roda's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.18 PPG, Roda 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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