Emmen 2-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Emmen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Emmen and Jong AZ meet at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Jong AZ (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Emmen against 1.40 for Jong AZ. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Emmen, 0 for Jong AZ and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with Emmen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 55% versus Jong AZ 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 55% | Jong AZ 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.89 xG and Jong AZ 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.052 / defence 1.320 | Jong AZ attack 0.816 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.331. Data: 11 Emmen games / 49 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 47% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 28%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Jong AZ 3.57. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 47% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Emmen 1.89 / Jong AZ 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.052 / def 1.320 | Jong AZ attack 0.816 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Emmen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Jong AZ xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong AZ kick off?
Emmen vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Emmen 2 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Emmen vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong AZ part of?
Emmen vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 47% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Emmen and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong AZ?
Record (2 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are Emmen and Jong AZ in?
Emmen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.05) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.82x) against Emmen's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.10
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.33
1.43
Jong AZ xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Emmen and 1.43 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen's recent record stands at 13W 14D 22L from 49 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 19L across 49 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Emmen against 1.39 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 6W 9D 8L from 23 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 6W 3D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.59 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 19W 11D 19L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong AZ away?
Emmen's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.17 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Emmen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 8 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong AZ?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Jong AZ 2-3 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong AZ?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 44%, Jong AZ 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Emmen) and 61% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 35% of games; Jong AZ in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Emmen's recent matches and 56% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Emmen's recent games and 61% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Jong AZ 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong AZ 2-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.89 xG and Jong AZ 1.43 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.05 / defence 1.32 against Jong AZ attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 47% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 28%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 55%, Jong AZ 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.08 PPG, Jong AZ 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.