Emmen 3-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Emmen face Helmond Sport.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Emmen and Helmond Sport meet at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Monday 29 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Emmen's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Emmen have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Helmond Sport have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Helmond Sport's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Emmen, 2 for Helmond Sport and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Emmen 2–1 Helmond Sport — a Emmen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Helmond Sport half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 55% versus Helmond Sport 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 58% | Helmond Sport 53%). Note also that Helmond Sport surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Emmen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.31 xG and Helmond Sport 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.874 / defence 1.141 | Helmond Sport attack 0.690 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.378. Helmond Sport's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from Emmen's last 35 games and Helmond Sport's last 73.
Result probabilities: Emmen 40% | Draw 31% | Helmond Sport 29%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.50 | Draw 3.24 | Helmond Sport 3.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Emmen 40% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 36 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Monday 29 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 40% | Draw 31% | Helmond Sport 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Emmen 1.31 / Helmond Sport 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.874 / def 1.141 | Helmond Sport attack 0.690 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Emmen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Helmond Sport xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does Emmen vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Emmen vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 29 April 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Helmond Sport?
Emmen 3 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Emmen vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Helmond Sport part of?
Emmen vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 36) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 40% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Emmen and Helmond Sport will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Emmen vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.87) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.69x) against Emmen's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 35 games and Helmond Sport's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
40%
2.50
31%
3.24
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.39
1.09
Helmond Sport xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Emmen and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Emmen and 1.09 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 22W 16D 35L from 73 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 31L across 73 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Emmen against 1.23 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 12W 11D 13L from their last 36 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 8W 9D 19L across their last 36 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.21 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Helmond Sport
Current Season
Emmen (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Current Season
Helmond Sport
Current Season
❓ Emmen vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 22W 16D 35L in their last 73 games (1.12 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 24W 18D 31L in their last 73 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Helmond Sport away?
Emmen's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.31 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Emmen and Helmond Sport, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 12 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won Emmen 3-0 Helmond Sport on 29 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
1
Draws
3
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Helmond Sport?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 4, Helmond Sport have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Emmen and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 December 2025: Emmen 4-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Helmond Sport?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 44%, Helmond Sport 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Emmen) and 47% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 31% of games; Helmond Sport in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and Helmond Sport matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Emmen's recent matches and 44% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Emmen and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Emmen's recent games and 47% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Emmen's recent matches and 67% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Helmond Sport 3-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.31 xG and Helmond Sport 1.09 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Helmond Sport landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Helmond Sport attack 0.69 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 40% | Draw 31% | Helmond Sport 29%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 58%, Helmond Sport 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.12 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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