Emmen 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host FC OSS at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 5W 0D 5L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Emmen 0.90 PPG, FC OSS 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Emmen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC OSS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Emmen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for FC OSS, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 4–0 with Emmen winning.
The historical record gives Emmen a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
FC OSS in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 50% versus FC OSS 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 62% | FC OSS 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.01 xG and FC OSS 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.037 / defence 1.284 | FC OSS attack 0.913 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.221. Data: 43 Emmen games / 42 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 51% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 27%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | FC OSS 3.70. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 70% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 51% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Emmen 2.01 / FC OSS 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.037 / def 1.284 | FC OSS attack 0.913 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Emmen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC OSS xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC OSS kick off?
Emmen vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 September 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Emmen 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Emmen vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC OSS part of?
Emmen vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 51% chance of winning, FC OSS a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Emmen and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
Record (6 meetings): Emmen 5W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.04) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
51%
1.96
22%
4.63
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
1 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.44
1.43
FC OSS xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
4%
27.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Emmen and 1.43 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 19W 5D 18L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS's form line: 9W 14D 19L from 42 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 0W 9D 11L from 20 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC OSS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.88 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 19W 5D 18L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 9W 14D 19L in their last 42 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC OSS away?
Emmen's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.40 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Emmen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, FC OSS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when FC OSS 4-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and FC OSS?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 60%, FC OSS 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Emmen) and 40% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Emmen's recent matches and 40% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Emmen's recent games and 40% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and FC OSS tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.01 xG and FC OSS 1.43 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.04 / defence 1.28 against FC OSS attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 51% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 27%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 62%, FC OSS 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.