Dordrecht 3-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as Dordrecht welcome MVV to Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
MVV — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, MVV have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dordrecht, 1 for MVV and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with MVV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
MVV trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 73% versus MVV 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 77% | MVV 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.43 xG and MVV 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.965 / defence 1.333 | MVV attack 0.720 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.448. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Dordrecht games / 26 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 38% | Draw 25% | MVV 36%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | MVV 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 50% | MVV 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 38% | Draw 25% | MVV 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Dordrecht 1.43 / MVV 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.965 / def 1.333 | MVV attack 0.720 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.39
MVV xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs MVV kick off?
Dordrecht vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs MVV?
Dordrecht 3 - 1 MVV.
Where is Dordrecht vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs MVV part of?
Dordrecht vs MVV is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 38% chance of winning, MVV a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dordrecht and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and MVV?
Record (1 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 0 | MVV 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and MVV in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. MVV (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against MVV's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
38%
2.62
25%
3.94
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.82
1.39
MVV xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.39 for MVV, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 5W 7D 14L from 26 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 16L across 26 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 0.85 PPG, MVV on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 2W 5D 5L from 12 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 3W 0D 9L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 2.23 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and MVV in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 5W 7D 14L in their last 26 games (0.85 PPG), while MVV have gone 8W 2D 16L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or MVV away?
Dordrecht's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 0.92 PPG; MVV away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
2
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, MVV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Dordrecht 1-1 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 58%, MVV 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dordrecht) and 58% (MVV).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 33% of games; MVV in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 42% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dordrecht's recent games and 58% of MVV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and MVV tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, MVV in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat MVV 3-1 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.43 xG and MVV 1.39 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.96 / defence 1.33 against MVV attack 0.72 / defence 1.30, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 38% | Draw 25% | MVV 36%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 77%, MVV 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.85 PPG, MVV 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.