Dordrecht 2-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Jong AZ at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 17 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.10 conceded. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dordrecht at 0.80 PPG versus Jong AZ's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dordrecht, 1 for Jong AZ and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 75% and Jong AZ 45% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 80% | Jong AZ 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.26 xG and Jong AZ 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.895 / defence 1.385 | Jong AZ attack 0.695 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.523. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Dordrecht games / 20 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 32% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 41%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Jong AZ 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 60% | Jong AZ 44%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 17 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 32% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Dordrecht 1.26 / Jong AZ 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.895 / def 1.385 | Jong AZ attack 0.695 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Jong AZ xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong AZ kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 17 January 2022 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Dordrecht 2 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 32% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong AZ in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
32%
3.16
27%
3.67
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.72
1.47
Jong AZ xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
7%
13.69
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.47 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht come into this having played 20 games, going 3W 4D 13L for 0.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dordrecht's home form reads 1W 3D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.45 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.95 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 3W 4D 13L in their last 20 games (0.65 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 0.67 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 56%, Jong AZ 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dordrecht) and 44% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 44% of games; Jong AZ in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 44% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dordrecht's recent games and 44% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong AZ 2-0 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.26 xG and Jong AZ 1.47 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.90 / defence 1.39 against Jong AZ attack 0.69 / defence 1.23, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 32% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 41%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 80%, Jong AZ 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with Dordrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.