Dordrecht 0-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
M-Scores Stadion plays host to Dordrecht versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at M-Scores Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Dordrecht. A 0.60 PPG lead over Jong Ajax (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong Ajax in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 3W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 53% versus Jong Ajax 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 61% | Jong Ajax 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.18 xG and Jong Ajax 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.988 / defence 0.914 | Jong Ajax attack 0.821 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Dordrecht games / 64 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 61% | Draw 22% | Jong Ajax 18%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Jong Ajax 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | Jong Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 61% | Draw 22% | Jong Ajax 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Dordrecht 2.18 / Jong Ajax 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.988 / def 0.914 | Jong Ajax attack 0.821 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Jong Ajax xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Dordrecht 0 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 61% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Ajax?
Record (8 meetings): Dordrecht 3W | Draws 3 | Jong Ajax 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Ajax in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.99x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.82x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.64
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.29
1.11
Jong Ajax xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
2%
50.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.11 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 31W 14D 19L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax's form line: 13W 16D 35L from 64 games, 0.86 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dordrecht are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Ajax.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 2.00 PPG from 31 outings (18W 8D 5L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 4W 5D 22L from 31 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dordrecht are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.11 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 31W 14D 19L in their last 64 games (1.67 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 13W 16D 35L in their last 64 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong Ajax away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
3
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Dordrecht 2-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong Ajax?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 58%, Jong Ajax 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Dordrecht and 68% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Jong Ajax in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dordrecht's games and 58% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Dordrecht's matches and 68% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Dordrecht 0-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.18 xG and Jong Ajax 1.11 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Jong Ajax attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 61% | Draw 22% | Jong Ajax 18%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Jong Ajax win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 61%, Jong Ajax 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.