Dordrecht 3-3 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as Dordrecht welcome FC Eindhoven to M-Scores Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 5W 4D 1L at M-Scores Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 1, FC Eindhoven 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 65% versus FC Eindhoven 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | FC Eindhoven 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.19 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.354 / defence 0.985 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.279 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.372. Dordrecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Dordrecht games / 57 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 48% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 30%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | FC Eindhoven 3.33. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 60% | FC Eindhoven 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 48% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Dordrecht 2.19 / FC Eindhoven 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.354 / def 0.985 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.279 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.73
FC Eindhoven xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 December 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Dordrecht 3 - 3 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 48% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
Record (6 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 4 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 1.35x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.38
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.92
1.73
FC Eindhoven xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
18%
5.63
11%
8.95
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
3%
30.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.73 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 28W 20D 9L from 57 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 21L across 57 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Eindhoven heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 16W 10D 2L from 28 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 9W 9D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.23 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 28W 20D 9L in their last 57 games (1.82 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 16W 20D 21L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.07 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Eindhoven have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2023, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dordrecht
6
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 57%, FC Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dordrecht) and 57% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Dordrecht's games and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Dordrecht's matches and 57% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven finished level at 3-3 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.19 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.73 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.35 / defence 0.98 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.28 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 48% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 30%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, FC Eindhoven 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.