Dordrecht 0-4 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht at Matchoholic Stadion this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
De Graafschap (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
De Graafschap arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 60% versus De Graafschap 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 65% | De Graafschap 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.36 xG and De Graafschap 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.851 / defence 1.025 | De Graafschap attack 1.220 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.258. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Dordrecht games / 65 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 33% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 43%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 40% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 33% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Dordrecht 1.36 / De Graafschap 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.851 / def 1.025 | De Graafschap attack 1.220 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.57
De Graafschap xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Dordrecht 0 - 4 De Graafschap.
Where is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 33% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dordrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.22x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
33%
3.03
24%
4.09
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.93
1.57
De Graafschap xG
3.03
33%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.61
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.57 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 17W 14D 34L from 65 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 23L across 65 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.38 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 10W 8D 14L from 32 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 13W 7D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.43 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 17W 14D 34L in their last 65 games (1.00 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 24W 18D 23L in their last 65 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.19 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
5
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, De Graafschap have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 53%, De Graafschap 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Dordrecht and 66% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 34%; Dordrecht have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 56% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Dordrecht's matches and 66% of De Graafschap's.
Do Dordrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Dordrecht 0-4 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.36 xG and De Graafschap 1.57 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. De Graafschap outscored their 1.57 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against De Graafschap attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 33% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 43%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 65%, De Graafschap 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.00 PPG, De Graafschap 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.