Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours VVV Venlo (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Den Bosch face VVV Venlo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 16 as Den Bosch welcome VVV Venlo to De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 3W 4D 3L at De Vliert — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VVV Venlo's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VVV Venlo — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, VVV Venlo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 5 for VVV Venlo and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with VVV Venlo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
VVV Venlo trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 79% and VVV Venlo 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 71% | VVV Venlo 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.69 xG and VVV Venlo 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.139 / defence 1.108 | VVV Venlo attack 0.921 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Den Bosch games / 42 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 38% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 40%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | VVV Venlo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VVV Venlo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 90% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 38% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Den Bosch 1.69 / VVV Venlo 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.139 / def 1.108 | VVV Venlo attack 0.921 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.73
VVV Venlo xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo part of?
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 38% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Den Bosch and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
Record (10 meetings): Den Bosch 3W | Draws 2 | VVV Venlo 5W.
What form are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.14x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
38%
2.64
23%
4.43
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.42
1.73
VVV Venlo xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.93
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.73 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 13W 10D 19L from 42 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 20L across 42 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.17 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 7W 6D 7L from 20 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.45 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 16W 6D 20L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or VVV Venlo away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.35 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when VVV Venlo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Den Bosch 0-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 80%, VVV Venlo at 55%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Den Bosch and 60% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Den Bosch's games and 55% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Den Bosch's matches and 60% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Den Bosch and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.