Den Bosch 0-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Roda travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 August 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Roda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 1.70 PPG, Roda 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 1 for Roda and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Roda trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 42% versus Roda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 52% | Roda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.18 xG and Roda 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.931 / defence 1.105 | Roda attack 1.059 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.386. Data: 40 Den Bosch games / 40 Roda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 28% | Draw 25% | Roda 48%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 2.08. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 40% | Roda 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 28% | Draw 25% | Roda 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Den Bosch 1.18 / Roda 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.931 / def 1.105 | Roda attack 1.059 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Roda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Roda xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Roda kick off?
Den Bosch vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Den Bosch 0 - 3 Roda.
Where is Den Bosch vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Roda part of?
Den Bosch vs Roda is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 28% chance of winning, Roda a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Den Bosch and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
Record (2 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Roda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
28%
3.61
25%
4.07
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.80
1.62
Roda xG
3.61
28%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
5%
18.29
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.62 for Roda, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 15W 5D 20L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda's form line: 19W 13D 8L from 40 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (10W 1D 9L).
On the road, Roda have gone 8W 7D 5L from 20 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.95 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 5D 20L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Roda have gone 19W 13D 8L in their last 40 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Roda away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.55 PPG; Roda away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Roda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
4
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 40%, Roda 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Den Bosch) and 55% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 60% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Den Bosch's matches and 55% of Roda's.
Do Den Bosch and Roda tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Roda in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Den Bosch 0-3 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.18 xG and Roda 1.62 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Roda outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Roda attack 1.06 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 28% | Draw 25% | Roda 48%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 52%, Roda 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Roda's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.