Den Bosch 1-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Stadion De Vliert to face Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.90 for PEC Zwolle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 42% versus PEC Zwolle 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 55% | PEC Zwolle 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.04 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.841 / defence 1.223 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.509 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.388. PEC Zwolle's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PEC Zwolle have an above-average attack strength of 1.509 — the away xG of 2.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Den Bosch games / 4 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 13% | Draw 17% | PEC Zwolle 70%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 7.69 | Draw 5.88 | PEC Zwolle 1.43. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.04 / 2.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 70% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Den Bosch 40% | PEC Zwolle 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 13% | Draw 17% | PEC Zwolle 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 60% | xG Den Bosch 1.04 / PEC Zwolle 2.56 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.841 / def 1.223 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.509 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
2.56
PEC Zwolle xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle?
Den Bosch 1 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 13% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 70% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Den Bosch and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and PEC Zwolle in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.84) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.51x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 2.56.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
13%
7.55
17%
6.05
70%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.60
2.56
PEC Zwolle xG
7.55
13%
Home win
6.05
17%
Draw
1.42
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
8%
12.95
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
1%
97.73
25%
4.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Den Bosch and 2.56 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 5D 20L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 11W 6D 21L from 38 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.03 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (9W 1D 9L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 6W 1D 12L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.08 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 5D 20L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 11W 6D 21L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.47 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Den Bosch
0
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2023, when PEC Zwolle 13-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 37% (Den Bosch) and 26% (PEC Zwolle) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Den Bosch) and 42% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 42% of games; PEC Zwolle in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 26% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Den Bosch's recent games and 42% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Den Bosch 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Den Bosch 1-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.04 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.56 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.51 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 13% | Draw 17% | PEC Zwolle 70%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 55%, PEC Zwolle 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.16 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.