Den Bosch 3-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and NAC Breda meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadion De Vliert — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
NAC Breda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.40 for NAC Breda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Den Bosch lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Den Bosch goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 48% versus NAC Breda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 60% | NAC Breda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.80 xG and NAC Breda 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.037 / defence 1.100 | NAC Breda attack 1.116 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.321. Data: 50 Den Bosch games / 50 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 35%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | NAC Breda 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Den Bosch 1.80 / NAC Breda 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.037 / def 1.100 | NAC Breda attack 1.116 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.62
NAC Breda xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs NAC Breda kick off?
Den Bosch vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Den Bosch 3 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda part of?
Den Bosch vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 42% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Den Bosch and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and NAC Breda in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.12x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
42%
2.36
23%
4.38
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.42
1.62
NAC Breda xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.62 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 18W 5D 27L from 50 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 18L across 50 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.48 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 12W 1D 12L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 8W 4D 13L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.50 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 18W 5D 27L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 21W 11D 18L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or NAC Breda away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.48 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 3 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
1
Draws
4
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, NAC Breda have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Den Bosch 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 44%, NAC Breda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Den Bosch and 64% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 32% of games; NAC Breda in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 52% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Den Bosch's matches and 64% of NAC Breda's.
Do Den Bosch and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out NAC Breda 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat NAC Breda 3-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.80 xG and NAC Breda 1.62 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against NAC Breda attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 42% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 35%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, NAC Breda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.18 PPG, NAC Breda 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.