Den Bosch 2-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and NAC Breda meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadion De Vliert — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
NAC Breda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.40 for NAC Breda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, NAC Breda have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Den Bosch's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with NAC Breda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. NAC Breda have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Den Bosch goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 50% and NAC Breda 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 62% | NAC Breda 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 0.99 xG and NAC Breda 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.681 / defence 1.313 | NAC Breda attack 1.135 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.408. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 Den Bosch games / 72 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 17% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 63%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 5.88 | Draw 4.76 | NAC Breda 1.59. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 17% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Den Bosch 0.99 / NAC Breda 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.681 / def 1.313 | NAC Breda attack 1.135 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
2.10
NAC Breda xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs NAC Breda kick off?
Den Bosch vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Den Bosch 2 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda part of?
Den Bosch vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 17% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Den Bosch and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and NAC Breda in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.14x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
17%
6.02
21%
4.83
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.09
2.10
NAC Breda xG
6.02
17%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
12%
8.16
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
2%
49.12
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Den Bosch and 2.10 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 17W 13D 42L from 72 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 31W 13D 28L across 72 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 10W 8D 18L from 36 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 15W 6D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.01 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.67 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 72%.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 17W 13D 42L in their last 72 games (0.89 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 31W 13D 28L in their last 72 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.06 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 3 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
1
Draws
4
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, NAC Breda have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Den Bosch 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Den Bosch, 72% for NAC Breda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Den Bosch and 69% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Den Bosch's games and 72% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Den Bosch's matches and 69% of NAC Breda's.
Do Den Bosch and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and NAC Breda finished level at 2-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 0.99 xG and NAC Breda 2.10 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.68 / defence 1.31 against NAC Breda attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 17% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 63%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 62%, NAC Breda 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.