Den Bosch 2-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Jong AZ travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 September 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 2W 0D 4L from 6 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch at Stadion De Vliert this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
Jong AZ — All Games: 5W 0D 1L from 6 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jong AZ are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong AZ trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 33% versus Jong AZ 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 50% | Jong AZ 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.09 xG and Jong AZ 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.844 / defence 1.522 | Jong AZ attack 0.895 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.436. Data: 6 Den Bosch games / 6 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 21% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 57%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Jong AZ 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 33% | Jong AZ 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 21% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Den Bosch 1.09 / Jong AZ 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.844 / def 1.522 | Jong AZ attack 0.895 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Jong AZ xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Den Bosch 2 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 21% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.83 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-0D-1L in 6 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.84) and Jong AZ's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
21%
4.81
22%
4.60
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.05
1.96
Jong AZ xG
4.81
21%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
14%
7.07
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
3%
34.03
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.96 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 2W 0D 4L from 6 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 5W 0D 1L across 6 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 (2.50 PPG).
Have Den Bosch or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
5
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 33%, Jong AZ 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Den Bosch) and 50% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jong AZ in 33%; Den Bosch have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 50% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Den Bosch's recent games and 50% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong AZ 2-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.09 xG and Jong AZ 1.96 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.84 / defence 1.52 against Jong AZ attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 21% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 57%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 50%, Jong AZ 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Den Bosch scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.