Den Bosch 4-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and FC OSS meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch at Stadion De Vliert this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Den Bosch, 1 for FC OSS and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Den Bosch goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 46% versus FC OSS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 57% | FC OSS 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.30 xG and FC OSS 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.804 / defence 1.157 | FC OSS attack 0.953 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.367. Data: 45 Den Bosch games / 44 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 32% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 42%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | FC OSS 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 50% | FC OSS 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 32% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Den Bosch 1.30 / FC OSS 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.804 / def 1.157 | FC OSS attack 0.953 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC OSS xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC OSS kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC OSS kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Den Bosch 4 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC OSS part of?
Den Bosch vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 32% chance of winning, FC OSS a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Den Bosch and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
Record (2 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC OSS in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.95x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
32%
3.09
26%
3.87
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.81
1.51
FC OSS xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.51 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 14W 5D 25L from 44 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 22L across 44 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.09 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 9W 1D 11L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 5W 3D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.27 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 14W 5D 25L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 13W 9D 22L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC OSS away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.33 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 4-1 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Den Bosch
0
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 6, FC OSS have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when FC OSS 4-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 43%, FC OSS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Den Bosch and 67% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 38% of games; FC OSS in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 52% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Den Bosch's matches and 67% of FC OSS's.
Do Den Bosch and FC OSS tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat FC OSS 4-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.30 xG and FC OSS 1.51 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against FC OSS attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 32% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 42%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 57%, FC OSS 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.07 PPG, FC OSS 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.