Den Bosch 1-3 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 1 as Den Bosch welcome FC Eindhoven to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Den Bosch haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vliert this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Eindhoven haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Den Bosch) versus 1.70 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 2 for FC Eindhoven and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 42% versus FC Eindhoven 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 53% | FC Eindhoven 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.35 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.936 / defence 0.931 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.039 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.435. Data: 38 Den Bosch games / 38 FC Eindhoven games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 36% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 38%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | FC Eindhoven 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 30% | FC Eindhoven 70%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 36% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Den Bosch 1.35 / FC Eindhoven 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.936 / def 0.931 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.039 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FC Eindhoven xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Den Bosch 1 - 3 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 36% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
Record (2 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Den Bosch (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.94x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.91
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.74
1.39
FC Eindhoven xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.39 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 5D 19L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. Den Bosch haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.79 PPG from 38 outings (20W 8D 10L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. FC Eindhoven haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Den Bosch's home form reads 10W 1D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.82 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Pre-Season
FC Eindhoven
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 14W 5D 19L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 20W 8D 10L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.63 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Den Bosch have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2023, when FC Eindhoven won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
7
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 37%, FC Eindhoven 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Den Bosch) and 47% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 32%; Den Bosch have failed to score in 37% of games; FC Eindhoven in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 47% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Den Bosch's recent games and 47% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Den Bosch 1-3 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.35 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.39 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 36% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 38%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 53%, FC Eindhoven 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.